The Herald-DigiPoll survey came closest to predicting the final election result, an analysis of the four major polls shows. It was the only one of the mainstream polls which did not underestimate National Party support or significantly overestimate the Green vote. Along with the Colmar Brunton survey, all its party vote predictions were within the margin of error.
The Herald looked at the final predictions by four polling companies and compared them to the provisional party vote results published by the Electoral Commission yesterday. Special votes could change the final result.
A poll taken before Judith Collins resigned from the Cabinet last week suggests that a majority of voters, even then, did not want her back as a minister if National was to be re-elected on September 20. The Herald-DigiPoll survey asked what Prime Minister John Key should do with Judith Collins if National won a third term. The response: 51.6 per cent said give her no ministerial role; 25.5 per cent said give her a less senior role than she had; and only 12.6 per cent thought she should keep the Justice portfolio or a similarly senior role.
National voters prefer the prospect of a post-election deal with Colin Craig's Conservative Party rather than Winston Peters' NZ First, a Herald-DigiPoll survey suggests.
A key policy plank for NZ First and the Conservative Party has been given a boost after two thirds of voters said they believed citizens-initiated referenda should be binding on a Government. The Herald DigiPoll survey showed 66 per cent of respondents agreed such referenda should be binding while 22 per cent said they should not.
New Zealand First, the Conservatives and Internet Mana are on the move up and Labour is still slipping, in the latest Herald DigiPoll survey. That will be unwelcome news to Labour leader David Cunliffe as he prepares for his first face-off against Prime Minister John Key in the election campaign, at 7pm on One.
National has taken a hit in the first poll since Nicky Hager's Dirty Politics was released but the Greens, not Labour, are the big winners so far.
Labour, in fact, has dropped a little - 1.3 points to 25.2 per cent - although leader David Cunliffe's popularity has risen.
The Greens have jumped 3.8 points to 13.7 per cent which would give them 18 MPs, boosting their numbers by four. National has fallen by 4.9 points to 50 per cent.
John Key's popularity has dived by 8.5 points in the first political poll since Nicky Hager's book Dirty Politics was released, according to a Herald DigiPoll survey. Mr Key is still well ahead of Labour Leader David Cunliffe but Mr Cunliffe has jumped by 4.1 points. Mr Key is preferred Prime Minister by 64.8 per cent, compared with Mr Cunliffe on 14.6 per cent. The figures do not necessarily reflect the party vote standings which will be released in tomorrow's Herald.
Christmas has taken a back seat to the election as people appear to be looking forward to the gift of government. In the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey, 35 per cent of voters deemed September's general election the most interesting event of the year.
The Greens are the first party to name their contenders for the September election, issuing a draft list which favours youthful candidates.
On the basis of the Herald-Digipoll survey published today, 17 Green candidates would get into Parliament.
Labour's support has sunk nearly six points and it is polling only 29.5 per cent in the Herald-DigiPoll survey.
The popularity of leader David Cunliffe has fallen by almost the same amount, to 11.1 per cent. That is worse than the 12.4 per cent worst rating of former leader David Shearer.